Kentucky's McVote for US Senate Pt. 2

Exploring a 2017 18% Approval Rating that led to a decisive 2020 Senate win.

Part 2 Objectives: Understand McConnell’s 18% approval rating (from 2017) vs. his 56% election win in 2020.

Look for outliers at the district level, reviewing +10% of Kentucky's 120 counties, totaling +50% of Kentucky's 2019 overall population for a decent sample size. This is about understanding KY's trends - NOT a search for fraud, which does not have evidence of occurring.

Conclude by starting to review election security experts' writings on McConnell’s 2020 win (Alison Greene and Jennifer Cohn).

Where Part 1 looked to confirm that there were weird numbers with McConnell’s recent election (it did¹), Part 2 now begins to look at a more granular level.

• How much did the coattail effect play in McConnell’s 2020 win?

  • In other words, did most Republicans vote Republican down ballot? Or was there a spicy mix of Republicans voting for both parties - and Democrats doing the same? This data is more significant than ever given the partisan era we all exist in².

• Will anything stand out at the county level with vote totals? While this review accounts for 52.19% of the population, only 12.5% of Kentucky’s counties are included (15/120). Looking at you, Democratic stronghold of Jefferson County. That said, what stands out from 2020?

  *Sources for the county level vote totals provided in research below.

Observations #2 and #3 below help explain how it’s entirely possible for McConnell to have abysmal approval ratings and still win Kentucky elections overwhelmingly. Unfortunately.

Upfront, we need to talk about this popular argument that is misleading and potentially damaging to Democrats’ efforts to win at the House, state, and local levels (hear me out):

“McConnell’s 18% approval rating from 2017 means it’s impossible for him to have won more than 50% of the vote, so there must be fraud.”

That’s not accurate at all.

Occam’s Razor³, a theory I referenced last time - and personally like to consider at times - doesn’t work in this situation. If you know me⁴, you get why the simplicity of that theory is good for me to keep in mind - but the answer in Kentucky requires a deeper dive, with several factors considered.

Observation Deck:

Seriously, though.

1. If Republicans can pass 361 voter suppression bills as of March 24, 2021⁵ on the basis of the Big Lie⁶ AND review a certified election⁷ in Arizona with no oversight⁸ / a company with no vote auditing experience⁹, Democrats can go back and investigate the validity of Mitch McConnell’s elections based on the weird approval-vs-votes discrepancies (18%¹⁰).

   And any Republican election win is now on the table for Democrats to investigate with dogged persistence, from past elections to future ones.

Logic framing and reframing.

2. It’s possible that no matter how much Kentucky voters dislike their Senators¹¹, the majority of voters dislike the Democratic option more.

   

   info c/o of Morning Consult

   In other words, McConnell could have an 18% approval rating - but in Kentucky, the Democratic alternative would always have a 17% rating or less.

   Either way, what’s the solution?

   It’s up to Democrats to break through that Red wall. Messaging upgrades, infrastructure investments that are clearly provided by Democrats, and connecting with rural communities is a big deal going forward.

   • One of my related theories: Republicans oppose reliable internet for rural communities¹² because that will make it easier for Democrats to organize in those communities, combat misinformation by breaking through that GQP message funnel, and ultimately change the hearts of some voters from Red to Blue.

   Another part of this theory: This rural GQP message-funnel is a cash cow. A straight-up misinformation cash machine.

More logic framing and reframing.

3. It’s also possible that Kentuckians dislike all Congress members more than the average US state. Maybe they dislike government officials the most out of all of us - someone has to! Maybe the state of Kentucky just really dislikes any and all of their Senators more than any other state.

Jennifer Cohn ✍🏻 📢 @jennycohn1

2/ “Likely voters have a mixed opinion of Senator McConnell, with 44 % saying they have a favorable opinion of him, while 46 % say they have an unfavorable opinion of him. Amy McGrath receives a negative 34 - 47 percent favorability rating. “ - Oct. 2020

poll.qu.eduPoll Results | Quinnipiac University PollQuinnipiac University Poll’s list of recent and past poll results for political races, state and national elections, and issues of public concern.

If Observations 2 and 3 are true, Democrats need to keep evolving and have a lead foot on the organizing accelerator. Right now.

If you’re in a rural community and you feel underserved by either party, I’m sorry and that needs to change. Your voice, your vote, your ideas matter.

Here are the links for the vote total sources¹³ I’ve been using. Alright now, let’s go!

---

A. Observing 2020 Voting Patterns: +50% of KY counties’ populations; +10% of KY counties.

Remember in Part 1 how Amy McGrath got 2.00% MORE votes than President Biden (38.20% vs. 36.20%), but McConnell got 4.29% LESS than the Former Guy (57.80% vs. 62.09%)? Me neither exactly, but here it is:

Now, let’s look at the county level - using a sample size that includes the population center of Jefferson county (KY’s Democratic stronghold) and several smaller Republican counties.

• 15/120¹⁴ Kentucky counties reviewed, or 12.5% of all counties.

• 52.19% of the total 2019 population (Sourced from several pages here¹⁵.)

• Are there counties listed in the sample below where Biden won and McGrath lost?

  • No. Nothing weird like that so far.

• Does anything else stand out?

  • Fayette County is the outlier, but it doesn’t look alarming when looking at 2020 totals:

    • McConnell got more votes than the Former Guy; McGrath got fewer votes than Biden - barely in both cases.

  • All other counties listed EXCEPT for Fayette have the combination of: 1) more votes for the Former Guy than McConnell and 2) more votes for McGrath than Biden.

    • It stands out to me that Kentucky Democrats showed up more for McGrath and more Republicans showed up for the Former Guy.

  • In the counties listed above, Biden got 88% of the vote that the Former Guy did - but the margin was much closer with McGrath getting 95% of McConnell’s total.

    • For a random comparison to demonstrate how close elections can get, Senator Maggie Hassan won her 2016 New Hampshire Senate election¹⁶ with 354,649 votes to 353,632. Her 2016 opponent got 99.7% of the vote total that Senator Hassan did.

It will be interesting to see how the historical voting of some counties changed in the 2020 Kentucky Senate race.

---

B. Reviewing Kentucky 2020 Research from Jenny Cohn, Alison Greene.

Jenny Cohn:

I agree with her findings that McConnell was expected to win the 2020 Senate race. In Part 1, I told the story of how I warned a family member to not get too excited about McGrath during the 2020 summer because McGrath wouldn’t win. Why? In part, Kentucky doesn’t like to elect women¹⁷.

Jennifer Cohn ✍🏻 📢 @jennycohn1

3/ McConnell was expected to win. That said, he won by a lot more than the exit polls predicted.

tdmsresearch.com2020 U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS – TDMS|RESEARCH

Charles Booker¹⁸ will have a better chance at winning in 2022 than McGrath did in 2020. Don’t blame the messenger. Let’s understand trends like why women aren’t getting elected at high rates in Kentucky - and change the game for the better, for everyone.

Jennifer Cohn ✍🏻 📢 @jennycohn1

Warning. With remote access to e-poll books (yes, vendors have it & I’m told they pass around a url to watch), bad actors cld track in real time how many votes they need & where to alter election outcomes. This wld NOT work w/ vote by mail. 1/

This is where it gets interesting. (Let me say again clearly here - there is no expectation that I’ll find widespread fraud.) The vulnerabilities Jenny Cohn discusses are worth everyone’s time.

Jennifer Cohn ✍🏻 📢 @jennycohn1

These are risks. I do not know if any of this occurred. But they are risks. And a former election official was worried enough to mention it to me about Tenex. 6/

Jennifer Cohn ✍🏻 📢 @jennycohn1

“The [Kentucky] State Finance and Administration Cabinet awarded a contract for electronic poll books to Tenex Software Solutions, a Tampa, Florida-based company, for up to 5,500 e-poll books for the state's 3,732 voting precincts.” - 7/26/19 7/

somerset-kentucky.comE-poll books will be used in NovemberThe way it stands now, all Pulaski County voters during the November General Election will use electronic polling books (e-poll books) instead of traditional paper-based roster books a voter signs

---

Alison Greene:

It looks like she started the 18% approval question - or at least drove it into the public consideration with a viral tweet. It’s a great idea to consider - I’ve devoted hours I don’t really have to spare that I can’t get back to learning about the 18%. And it’s been valuable for me, and I hope for you too as you read along with me.

Alison Greene @GrassrootsSpeak

On my continuing quest to understand how Mitch McConnell, who had an approval rating of 18%, managed to win reelection by 57%, I dug even deeper🤔 The deeper I dig, the more I find the numbers out of Kentucky hard to swallow🙄 Here's a follow up on Kentucky's election results👇

I’ve addressed my feelings about the 18% approval and McConnell’s Senate win ultimately not being too alarming for me (from 2017, McConnell’s approval rating went up and exceeded McGrath’s by 2020 - like Jenny Cohn mentioned).

Right now, it’s important to immerse ourselves in understanding. There’s too much at stake in future elections, so swim deep with confidence.

---

Part 2 Conclusions and lingering questions.

1. The style of Kentucky politics makes it completely plausible that McConnell went from an 18% approval rating in 2017 to a decisive 2020 election win.

2. Democrats need to win the rural game to go next level. Establishing a reliable broadband internet system across the country can help with that by puncturing holes in the GQP misinformation funnel / cash machine.

3. What anomalies did Alison Greene find at the county levels in December 2020 and how has that research changed the conversation on Kentucky’s 2020 elections since that was published?

4. Does the use of e-poll books in Kentucky 2020 (pointed out by Jenny Cohn) have anything to do with Alison Greene’s findings?

1. https://resist.substack.com/p/kentuckys-mcvote-for-us-senate-2020

2. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/12/17/in-a-politically-polarized-era-sharp-divides-in-both-partisan-coalitions/

3. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/simplicity/

4. https://twitter.com/VotingInfoHQ

5. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/state-voting-bills-tracker-2021

6. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/big-lie-and-push-restrict-voting

7. https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-politics-arizona-6a1ec9db67e605e37f73a780e2451f97

8. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/04/26/maricopa-county-election-audit-court-should-deny-secrecy-request-media-group-says/7387895002/

9. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/26/republicans-arizona-vote-audit-florida-484737

10. http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/KentuckyResults.pdf

11. https://morningconsult.com/senator-rankings/

12. https://www.rollcall.com/2021/04/13/is-broadband-infrastructure-republicans-used-to-think-so/

13. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rEaSjKE_Ju6XJ4CYYztCs6qOr_g40vRfzomc0yykiv8/edit#gid=0

14. https://ballotpedia.org/Counties_in_Kentucky#:~:text=Kentucky%20has%20120%20counties.

15. https://datacommons.org/place/geoId/21?utm_medium=explore&mprop=count&popt=Person&hl=en

16. https://ballotpedia.org/Maggie_Hassan

17. https://women.ky.gov/Legislation/Pages/default.aspx#:~:text=In%20Kentucky's%20history%2C%20no%20woman,women%20throughout%20history%20to%20Congress.

18. https://www.wlky.com/article/former-ky-rep-charles-booker-forms-exploratory-committee-for-2022-senate-run/36094953